The potential IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are already capturing much of the attention of international financial markets. Although the spotlight is on Wall Street, the outcome will have a direct impact on Europe and Spain, affecting both large institutional funds and small investors interested in the artificial intelligence boom.
These three companies, which combine the space business with cutting-edge generative AI, have become the epicenter of a new "tech boom ." Their private valuations are hovering around figures that, if confirmed in the public markets, would dwarf many of the largest IPOs of the last decade and reshape investment priorities worldwide.
Enormous valuations that eclipse the last decade
In the last five years, all IPOs, mergers, and acquisitions registered in the United States generated a combined total of approximately $1,58 trillion , according to PitchBook data. This figure is noteworthy because SpaceX's potential market capitalization alone could exceed that amount if the valuation already being discussed in the private market is confirmed.
Elon Musk's company, following its merger with xAI last February, was valued at around $1,25 trillion , and there is speculation that its stock market debut could occur with a market capitalization even exceeding $1,5 trillion. Although initially only around 5% of the capital would be offered, the size of the operation would position SpaceX as one of the largest IPOs in modern history.
OpenAI and Anthropic are also strong contenders. In secondary markets where shares of unlisted companies are traded, such as Forge Global, OpenAI's valuation hovers around $900 billion , while Anthropic's shares trade at levels approaching $1 trillion. Industry sources indicate that Anthropic is negotiating new funding rounds to at least match the valuation of its direct rival.
If SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic ultimately go public at prices similar to current private market valuations, the combined value of the three deals could easily exceed $2,64 trillion. That figure surpasses the total value generated in over a decade of high-profile tech divestitures, including such high-profile IPOs as Coinbase, Airbnb, DoorDash, and Uber.
For European investors, including Spanish funds that already have exposure to US technology, these figures represent a potentially historic opportunity , but also an increase in systemic risk: a sharp correction in these companies could drag down a large part of the AI and advanced software sector.
Who wins with IPOs: venture capital, corporate giants, and Elon Musk
The concentration of value in these three companies is so high that many experts speak of an extraordinarily concentrated market . Meghan Reynolds, managing partner of the technology fund Altimeter, points out that venture capital returns have always followed a kind of “power law”: a handful of companies generate most of the returns of an entire fund.
In this scenario, the biggest beneficiaries would be a mix of venture capital funds, corporate investors, and founders . Musk, thanks to his position at SpaceX and his presence in the AI ecosystem, is better positioned than anyone to become the world's first trillionaire if the public market validates current valuations. Meanwhile, conglomerates like Google and Amazon, with significant stakes in Anthropic, could see multimillion-dollar capital gains.
Even with relatively small stakes, it is estimated that venture capital funds and large technology companies could collectively pocket some $815.000 billion in profits if IPOs are launched at current prices. That figure surpasses the net gain of $666.000 billion achieved by venture capital investors over the past decade.
This potential return explains the strong FOMO (fear of missing out) perceived in the sector. In Europe and Spain, many technology funds are trying to gain indirect access to these companies, either through global investment vehicles or stakes in US funds with direct exposure to SpaceX, OpenAI , or Anthropic.
An opaque and highly exclusive secondary market
The intense interest surrounding these companies has led to the emergence of an entire parallel industry offering early access to shares in SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Before they go public, investors with significant financial resources try to acquire shares on secondary markets, where employees and early partners sell portions of their holdings through shell companies.
These operations are usually reserved for qualified investors and high-net-worth family offices , often by invitation only. The problem is that, in many cases, the structure of these companies makes it difficult to know exactly what is being purchased and under what conditions future cash will be received once the IPO takes place.
Demand is so high that, in the case of Anthropic, buying appetite pushed its implied valuation in the secondary market above one trillion dollars even before a specific IPO date was set. A similar situation is occurring at OpenAI, with intense activity on platforms that facilitate the sale of shares in private companies.
For the average European investor, these types of transactions are practically inaccessible . Most will have to wait until the companies are listed on regulated markets to be able to invest through their traditional broker or exchange-traded funds, which will likely integrate these stocks into their technology and AI portfolios.
AI, rockets, and a gigantic energy bill
Unlike the previous generation of enterprise software startups, which required relatively little capital, these new AI companies are characterized by a massive consumption of computing resources . Training and scaling models like those from OpenAI or Anthropic demands data centers with thousands of state-of-the-art GPUs, reinforced electrical infrastructure, and highly strained chip supply chains.
Collectively, investors have already committed around $310.000 billion to SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic alone. And their funding needs are far from over: the three companies plan to bolster their computing capabilities, expand data centers, and continue investing in new AI models and related services.
Anthropic, for example, doesn't expect to reach the break-even point until 2028 , and in the case of OpenAI, the profitability horizon seems even further away. Both companies are still operating at a loss, but they justify these losses by citing strong revenue growth and the race to improve their models against rivals like Google or Chinese labs like DeepSeek, which have driven prices down.
All of this raises a central question for potential European and American shareholders: to what extent does the promise of future profits compensate for the current volume of operating losses and the enormous capital bill that these companies need to maintain their competitive advantage?
Soaring revenues and out-of-scale growth
Astronomical valuations don't appear out of thin air. In the case of OpenAI, the company reached a valuation of nearly $800.000 billion just three years after the launch of ChatGPT, a growth rate that highlights the traditional maturation timelines of large technology companies.
Anthropic has also surprised the market. Recent reports indicate that its annualized revenue rate could approach $45.000 billion this year, driven by the adoption of its Claude models by companies and developers worldwide. Its CEO, Dario Amodei, even stated that revenue increased 80-fold in a single quarter, a figure that, if sustained, would be unprecedented in the recent history of the industry.
SpaceX, for its part, has established itself for years as the most valuable startup on the planet . The combination of government contracts, launch services for third parties, and the global expansion of Starlink has made the company a key player in both the space and telecommunications industries.
This transformative potential has led to a shift in mindset among venture capital funds themselves. Some partners acknowledge that there is a kind of "return to the more adventurous era of venture capital ," where the goal is once again to take on large risks in assets that follow extreme distributions: a few companies concentrate almost all of the market's profitability.
For European investors, accustomed to more moderate growth cycles, this dynamic demands particularly prudent risk management. The combination of explosive growth and regulatory uncertainty —especially regarding data protection, competition, and the responsible use of AI—could translate into significant volatility once the shares are launched.
Risks, lessons from the Uber era and possible ripple effect in Europe
Experts insist that the large IPOs of the latest generation of tech companies can serve as a cautionary tale . Uber, for example, was an extraordinary success for its early investors, but its stock market debut was accompanied by a 7% drop on its first day of trading. The public market showed far less patience with a company that was burning through cash at a rapid pace.
Uber's stock price took years to stabilize above its initial offering level, only consolidating in 2023 when the company began posting consecutive quarterly profits . Today, its market capitalization is around $152.000 billion, a significant but modest figure compared to the expected valuations of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic.
The first major test will come with SpaceX, which will be the first mega-IPO of this new generation . The company will have to convince both retail investors, more receptive to Musk's narrative, and large institutional investors, who will scrutinize the numbers: there is talk of losses of up to $4.940 billion on revenues of $18.600 billion last year, figures that will generate debate about the sustainability of the model.
Their initial performance will largely set the tone for the subsequent IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic. If the reception is strong and valuations hold, the market will interpret this as evidence of growth potential in AI and the space sector and will more readily support further offerings. Conversely, if the shares suffer severe corrections, a wave of adjustments in the private valuations of technology startups worldwide cannot be ruled out.
In Europe, where the regulation of artificial intelligence and capital markets tends to be more cautious, the performance of these IPOs could influence both the EU regulatory agenda and the availability of funds to finance large-scale local projects. A resounding success would reinforce the idea that Europe must accelerate its own AI ecosystem to avoid over-reliance on US providers, while a setback would give ammunition to those calling for a temper on investor enthusiasm.
For now, the only certainty is that the stock market debuts of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic have become the decade's biggest test for artificial intelligence and global venture capital. What happens on Wall Street in the coming years will not only involve record figures; it will also determine the extent to which the market is willing to back with real money the almost limitless expectations that have been built around this new generation of tech giants.
