The release of the Nintendo Switch 2 is just around the corner and, as expected, the Japanese company has already put all its cards on the table regarding its commercial expectations. Nintendo has revealed its official sales forecasts. for the console's first full fiscal year, generating significant debate among shareholders, analysts and industry enthusiasts.
The transition from the first Switch to its successor takes place in a scenario full of challenges, with declining profit figures and numerous expectations placed on the new hardwareWhile the original Switch continues to rack up sales—with 152,12 million units to date—attention is now turning to the numbers the company hopes to achieve with the next generation.
Official forecasts for Nintendo Switch 2
Nintendo has announced that it plans to sell 15 million units of Switch 2 during the fiscal year 2025-2026, from April 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026. This objective is slightly lower than the original Switch's debut, which reached around 17,8 million in the same period after its launch. However, it should be noted that the Switch 2 will have 10 effective months in that fiscal year, compared to almost 13 for the first console. Thus, the expected monthly average sales are 1,5 million consoles, surpassing the initial sales pace of the previous generation.
In addition, Nintendo estimates to distribute 45 million games for Switch 2 during that fiscal period, excluding titles included in bundles. The data reflects the company's confidence in a catalog that promises significant new releases, although there have also been comments about Nintendo's usual caution when making public its initial forecasts.
The economic impact and market reaction
In parallel with sales projections, the Japanese firm expects the launch of the new console to boost significantly its economic indicators. With this goal of 15 million consoles sold and an estimated 63,1% increase in revenue, Nintendo is looking to reverse its recent profit slump. The latest report shows a 43,2% drop in annual net profit and a reduction of over 30% in sales revenue compared to the previous year, driven by the logical slowdown at the end of the Switch's life cycle and the community's wait for the generational leap.
Another relevant fact is the company's stock market situation. The expectation created by Switch 2 has driven Nintendo's market value to exceed 100.000 million, consolidating its position as one of the most valuable Japanese companies currently. However, some external obstacles have generated uncertainty, especially tariff policies in the U.S., which could impact the prices of the console and its accessories.
Current Switch sales and software expectations
As far as the current generation is concerned, the Switch continues to break records and, with over 152 million units sold, is close to surpassing the Nintendo DS as the most successful console in the company's history. The games continue to show strength, with titles like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, which exceeds 68 million copies, and a total of more than 1.391 billion games distributed among all versions of the hybrid console.
Looking ahead to Switch 2, Nintendo has stated that the first major releases are reserved for the new generation, which could explain the moderation in software results in the last fiscal year. Investors and analysts are closely watching how the market will respond once the console is available, especially after rapid pre-sale in territories like the United States and CEO Shuntaro Furukawa's warnings about possible initial shortages.
Unknowns and perspectives for 2025-2026
Although the figures for 15 million Switch 2 and 45 million games may seem conservative, Nintendo is facing a complex situation: Doubts about the impact of US tariffs, adjustments to the supply chain, and the company's usual caution when publishing its forecasts. All of this will coexist with high demand and a market that seems willing to welcome the new offering with open arms.
The Japanese company faces a year of changes, where the strength of its brand, the Expectations for the new console and the evolution of its sales will determine whether Switch 2 can surpass the pace set by its predecessor and keep Nintendo among the leaders in the sector.
